Correlation Of The U.S. Dollar To Commodities
I recently spoke at an ETF conference about commodities. During the panel discussion I mentioned that commodities includes a lesser known factor; currencies. An investor may view commodities partially as a currency play. Many commodities are quoted in U.S. dollars (spot $DXY). In the short-term the direction of $DXY may not impact commodities (S&P GSCI spot), however, over the longer-term a trending $DXY may impact commodities. For example, if the dollar is moving higher, commodities become more expensive to the rest of the world. Thus potentially reducing demand and potentially having an impact to suppress commodity prices. If the dollar weakens, commodities become cheaper around the world relative to other currencies. This could increase demand for commodities and potentially increase prices. The Long-term correlation of the $DXY to S&P GSCI is -0.3. However when analyzing the rolling 12-month correlation of the dollar to commodities we find the correlation has a...
