U.S. corn and soybean yields were dramatically reduced by the drought and heat wave of 2012. Hints of the drought began in mid-May as the coverage of subsoil dryness rapidly increased. Drought conditions reached a breaking point in mid-June when it became apparent that unusual warmth dating to November 2011 would continue.
Throughout 2012, the Pacific Ocean warmed and the first El Niño event since July 2009 - April 2010 is near-imminent to begin. Although the upcoming El Niño is only expected to be weak or moderate, it decreases the odds for a repeat drought in South America during the upcoming corn and soybean growing season. However, it increases the chance for dryness to exist in Australia when its wheat is particularly sensitive. Recent history and the weakness of the upcoming El Niño limit potential weather implications for the U.S. over the next six to nine months.
Our presentation at the September 12 NIBA Event will examine how the drought of 2012 evolved, and show why it was likely the most stressful growing season for U.S. corn and soybeans since 1936. Additionally, we will examine the potential implications of the developing El Niño on the worldwide supply of future grains and oilseeds.
Mike Tannura is owner of T-storm Weather, LLC, which is one of the most highly-respected weather and analytic firms in the U.S. grain industry. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from Iowa State University (1998), a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (2007), and was awarded the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for excellence in television weather broadcasting (2000). Mike founded the T-storm Weather subscription service in 2006 to help buyers and sellers of crops make financial decisions through a combination of accurate forecasts, easy-to-understand maps and text, and a deep understand of how weather and technology influence corn and soybean yields.
Contact Mike Tannura at mike@tstorm.net or 312.638-0993.
