Over the last 6 years the crude oil market has had a material change in market structure.The changing landscape of regulation, capital requirements and the withdraw of participation by certain market participants has changed the open interest formation. Open interest has basically double in this period while volumes have remain relatively unchanged.
With the shift of the geographic demand to Asia across all commodities , it is interesting to note some of the uniqueness of Asia demand.
The other feature of the market is the dramatic change in the forward curve.$100 crude had a backwardation of $20, now we live in the steep contango market and storage availability has become a focal point. The vast majority of volatility has been in the front end of the curve. The distant dates have also had a major shift. As a former commodity merchant , the commercial trade always believes the real story is the change in the slope of the forward curve.
Be sure to watch "Changing Ownership of Crude Futures Open Interest/Status of Barrel Ownership" at the NIBA NYC Conference on April 20th at 2:40pm.
