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How Rate Changes Could Affect Consumers
CME Updates
January 15, 2019
4 min read

How Rate Changes Could Affect Consumers

The strong job market, low unemployment rate and rising wages are all good signs for the economy, but have posed a rising risk of inflation. To offset this inflation risk, the Federal Reserve has gradually raised interest rates, which has the eventual effect of slowing the economy. This continued rise in interest rates over the last two years has been both good and bad news for consumers. If you are a saver it has been positive; if you’re a borrower it has been painful. The increase in rates affects mortgages, credit cards, home equity loans and car payments to mention just a few, thereby affecting the disposable income of consumers. Costs to Homeowners Homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages are unaffected by a raise in rates but an increase in rates leads to rising interest payments on variable mortgages. For example, a half percent rise in rates on a $100,000 mortgage translates...

By NIBARead article
Will Gold Rebound in 2019?
CME Updates
January 11, 2019
4 min read

Will Gold Rebound in 2019?

Frankincense and myrrh may no longer be traditional Christmas gifts, but the appeal of gold endures. For investors, however, the yellow metal lost a little of its luster in 2018. In late December, the gold price was down 4.5 percent ($1,255 per ounce). It had also suffered the indignity of being surpassed by palladium as the most valuable precious metal, something that last happened in 2002 when gold languished at levels around $450/oz. Gold and Real Yields Gold faced three main headwinds in 2018: rising (real) interest rates; a strong U.S. dollar; and, until recently, relatively low levels of equity market volatility. There are sound reasons to believe that these factors are evolving into tailwinds. Real yields are the difference between cash yields on bonds and the (forward) inflation rate. Real yields have been rising for most of the year and in October the U.S. 10-year real yield rose above...

By NIBARead article
Market Update: Looking Ahead to CPI
CME Updates
January 11, 2019
1 min read

Market Update: Looking Ahead to CPI

Jack Bouroudjian discusses why today was a breather, and what we should look out for next week, notably the consumer price index. The post Market Update: Looking Ahead to CPI appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets - Market Update: Looking Ahead to CPI

By NIBARead article
Three Currencies to Watch in 2019
CME Updates
January 9, 2019
4 min read

Three Currencies to Watch in 2019

2018 was a phenomenal year for the U.S. dollar as the trade weighted Dollar Index rose more than 9 percent from its low in February. This strength drove all of the major currencies lower from the euro to the Japanese yen and Australian dollar. Nothing mattered more than the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars in 2018. It determined where all of the major currencies were headed and had a significant impact on commodities. That influence on the market won’t change in the year ahead which is why the outlook for the dollar trumps all else. As we begin 2019, here are three currencies to watch: U.S. Dollar The good times are over for the dollar. The trend for the greenback shifted in 2018 when equities collapsed and the economy began to slow. Unfortunately there are no shortages of risks for the U.S. economy in the year ahead. Volatility is rising,...

By NIBARead article
Market Update: A V-Shaped Recovery
CME Updates
January 9, 2019
1 min read

Market Update: A V-Shaped Recovery

Jack Bouroudjian discusses what is driving the V-shaped recovery in equity markets, and what it could mean for the weeks ahead. The post Market Update: A V-Shaped Recovery appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets - Market Update: A V-Shaped Recovery

By NIBARead article
Market Update: Perfect Storm for Bulls
CME Updates
January 4, 2019
1 min read

Market Update: Perfect Storm for Bulls

A positive U.S. jobs report, dovish comments from the Fed and news on the trade front helped spark a rally in equities. Jack Bouroudjian discusses what it all could mean for equity indexes in 2019. The post Market Update: Perfect Storm for Bulls appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets - Market Update: Perfect Storm for Bulls

By NIBARead article
Market Update: New Year, More Volatility
CME Updates
January 2, 2019
1 min read

Market Update: New Year, More Volatility

The year started right where 2018 left off, with more volatility. Jack Bouroudjian explains why this week’s volatility might be different, and why market participants should watch fund flows and the Fed over the next few trading days. The post Market Update: New Year, More Volatility appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets - Market Update: New Year, More Volatility

By NIBARead article
Three Geopolitical Risks Traders Will Watch in 2019
CME Updates
December 31, 2018
3 min read

Three Geopolitical Risks Traders Will Watch in 2019

Successful traders do not have a crystal ball.They identify and assess risk and then act accordingly. As 2018 ends and we look forward to 2019, what risks should we concern ourselves with? I am going to concentrate on three main areas of risk for traders in the United States: a continued trade conflict with China, the effect of Brexit on the global economy and stability in the oil producing region of the Middle East specifically with regards to Saudi Arabia. Trade Conflict with China When the current U.S. administration made it clear that there would be a different approach to our trade practices, I was skeptical. I felt that China was better positioned to play the long game. China does not have to play by the same political cycle rules that the United States does. They do not have to plan for a potential political upheaval every two, four or...

By NIBARead article
Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets
CME Updates
December 31, 2018
1 min read

Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets

The flattening of the yield curve, the rising dollar and hedge fund redemptions are among the factors that will eventually influence market structure. In looking back at this year’s trends, Jack Bouroudjian gives some guidance for what we should watch heading into 2019. The post Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets - Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets

By NIBARead article
Market Update: December Review
CME Updates
December 28, 2018
1 min read

Market Update: December Review

As the last week of December comes to a close, Jack Bouroudjian discusses recent market moves and what to look forward into the coming year. The post Market Update: December Review appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets - Market Update: December Review

By NIBARead article
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